Experimental I
Why conduct surveys?
Self reports
are easy to administer, low in cost, considered to provide reliable reports of a wide variety of characteristics or features.Sampling from populations
Theoretical distributions of expected outcomes (assuming all things being equal) are used to estimate the likelihood of specific samples representing their populations. This helps pollsters estimate the 'truth' of their polls.
Scientists, like pollsters 'make bets' against the odds that their samples represent the real populations and their hypothesis is not incorrect (falsification) - null that there is no difference.
Sampling theory & Probabilities
Based upon the probability of events problems are addressed, questions are asked about samples and the theoretical populations from which they came.
2 common sorts of problems:
1) Compare theoretical distribution to observed distribution (your data)
2) Calculate expected frequencies for X values
Probability = relative frequency of events X, Y, Z
Probability distribution = theoretical frequency distribution of which there are many
Binomial & Normal distributions are theoretical sampling distributions that are used in sorting out these problems of representation and inference.
E.g., binomial expansions
(p + q) k
p = probability of event happening
q = 1 - p (probability of not happening)
k = sample size (number of trials)
the coefficient indicates the number of ways an outcome may occur
for k=3 ----> p3 + 3p2q + 3pq2 + q3 = 1
three coins TTT 3HTT 3HHT HHH
Binomial distribution is appropriate for
1) discrete events
2) independent events
3) 2 classes of events (p&q)
4) any sample size, but difficult for large k
(k>30 use poisson or normal distribution to approximate binomial)
5) any values of p = (0 to 1)
Confidence intervals
give you information about the likelihood of error in the sample vs. the population, this is called sampling error.Sample Size
has an impact on the size of the confidence limit, where the sample needs to be larger for a more narrow limit e.g., from Cozby:
Population |
Precision |
of |
estimate |
Size |
+ 3 % |
+ 5 % |
+ 10 % |
2,000 |
696 |
322 |
92 |
5,000 |
879 |
357 |
94 |
10,000 |
964 |
370 |
95 |
50,000 |
1,045 |
381 |
96 |
100,000 |
1,056 |
383 |
96 |
over 100,000 |
1,067 |
384 |
96 |
Sampling Techniques
Probability sampling
- making use of probabilities to select specific people. E.g., simple random-using phone numbers to randomly selectStratified random sampling
- by dividing the population into groups or "strata" one randomly selects people from a given stratum.E.g., 'ethnics' live in a particular part of town, can use census tracts to randomly select people from various parts of town to match the overall proportions in the general population.
Cluster sampling
- may wish to find people in various units that exist, e.g., schools in various school district across the whole province. The districts are the clusters samples the schools.Haphazard Sampling
take whomever you can find, from what ever channels are available, such as word of mouth, subject pools, advertising,'Snowballing'
- working through social networking gradually build larger samples through clumping.Evaluating samples
Sampling frames
are used by researchers to provide definitions of populations from within which their samples arise.Response or return rates
are important as they indicate the proportion of people who agree to respond, or completed vs incomplete questionnairesConstructing questions
Defining Research Objectives
- What is the question your are asking? What type of information can you acquire? The types of questions you ask will partially be defined by the nature of the sample but also your intended goalsWhat to survey?
E.G.Question wording
Simplicity
- it is best to keep questions to a simple level of comprehension. However, sometimes, when dealing with complex issues that is impossible.Double-barreled questions
- arise when two or more thoughts or ideas are being questioned at once. Again it is sometimes unavoidable best done in semantic differential. (divide and add together?)Semantic Differential
- bipolar scales for the relative comparison of two terms or ideas. E.g., good-bad, strong-weak, active-passive, introvert-Loaded questions
- leading or strong terms (negative emotional, morally judgmental)Negative wording
- can be confusing yet sometimes need to avoid positive response bias such as . . .Yea Saying
always agree; positive response bias.
Responses to Questions
Open - ended vs. fixed questions
- Compare the open-ended questions about Canadian Identity and the diversity of responses vs. Agree - Disagree.Number of response alternatives -
try to keep them to a moderate level (5 - 7) not too manyResponses sets
arise when respondents provide responses that are biased or altered in some form.i.e., faking good or bad, positive bias, random, ...
Rating Scales
Types
of scales can vary greatly from number to picture or check mark on a long line.non-verbal scales
- can use faces or symbols to acquire information (traffic lights, hands, ...)
Labels
for response alternatives strongly agree-disagree; never, rarely, sometimes, usually, always
Finalising the questionnaire
keep the same style throughout, including the fonts and scales, unless there is a good reason not to do so (construct validation, is a variable)
Using face validity checks (have friends and colleagues read it through) and pilot tests to refine questionnaires. Convergent and Discriminant validity studies also help to work out theoretical constructs and questionnaire forms.
Administering surveys
Questionnaires
can be administered to groups in person, through the mail or e-mail.Interviews
can be administered over the telephone or in face to face interviews. There are possible advantages to each but they may fall prey to interviewer bias. Watch out for biases in asking leading questions and in interpreting answers or giving answers. Sometimes interviewers "look for" answers or complete thoughts for participants.Focus groups
are also a good way to survey attitudes or feelings on certain issues. Can range from 6-8 or as many as 30 people forums where issues of concern can be addressed or answered.Experimental Design
Experimental designs
are generally used to explore questions of causality through inferential hypothesis testing. Usually it is the case that control is used to isolate possible causes.Confounding factors
occur when two or more variables or potential sources of influence or causality occur together. Experimental controls may ignore or not test important factors that might be the real causality behind the apparent influence of an independent variable.Poor designs to avoid
include having no control group or comparison. Simple correlation at best.One group pre-post test
may also be confounded by the following factors:History
- any event that occurs between pre & post-test that may have an influenceMaturation
- physical, psychological and social development that may change Dependent Var.Testing -
taking a test once may change your behaviour next time your take that testInstrument decay
- may also occur when the instrument itself may not work as well on second or third trials. People may get bored.Regression toward the mean
is a tendency for score to move towards the mean on second trials, particularly for extreme scores (high or low)Non-equivalent control group
design occurs when there are selection factors that may play a role in the outcome. E.g., when 'treatment' group is self-selected vs. the control group as in smokers, or in phone list take volunteers and others call control.Well designed experiments
attempt to account for specific possible confounding variables. Keeping K things constant or controlled while varying X factors across Y levels.Post-test only
- Group taken from population and randomly assigned to group & measure Dependent Variable. Assumes that the population is homogeneous and normally distributedPre-post test
- baseline studies where a first recording is done, the treatment is presented then a second recording is made. The first data record can be compared with the second or subsequent ones.Assignment to groups
is done methodically to ensure certain conditions for the study. Usually to establish 'equivalent' groups random assignment is done.Random
- can be simple random assignment using first come or even random number generatorsMatched pairs
or groups can also be randomly assigned to conditions. Keeping the pre-test scores as markers for pairing (high-low) can assignRepeated Measures
have advantages over equivalent groups because they are more closely the same person. "Within subjects" designs give the same or similar measures to participants, acting as their own 'controls' (like in baseline). However, ordering, practice fatigue and other factors may play a role.Order effects
- sequence of events, tests and procedures may have significant impact on the performance of the participant, tainting resultsCounter balancing
is when researchers alter the order of presentation for the various conditions. There are several methods.Latin squares
are done to ensure that 1) each condition is in each ordinal position and that 2) each condition precedes and follows each condition once. To determine order effects:Figure 2 from Cozby - Mental Rotations
|
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
Row 1 |
A |
B |
D |
C |
Row 2 |
B |
C |
A |
D |
Row 3 |
C |
D |
B |
A |
Row 4 |
D |
A |
C |
B |
The number of orders (Rows) is equivalent to the number of conditions for two or more people each.
Randomised blocks -
can also be used to eliminate order effects where a number of blocks are presented each having a randomised sequence within (e.g., lists of words).Time interval
between treatments because of need to take affect or rest to relieve fatigue, developmental studies. May have drop out.Choosing between independent groups
& repeated measures
Between - Within designs
statistically ?